Characteristics of successful government-led interventions to support healthier populations: a starting portfolio of positive outlier examples.

Despite progress on the Millennium and Sustainable Development Goals, significant public health challenges remain to address communicable and non-communicable diseases and health inequities. The Healthier Societies for Healthy Populations initiative convened by WHO's Alliance for Health Policy and Systems Research; the Government of Sweden; and the Wellcome Trust aims to address these complex challenges. One starting point is to build understanding of the characteristics of successful government-led interventions to support healthier populations. To this end, this project explored five purposefully sampled, successful public health initiatives: front-of-package warnings on food labels containing high sugar, sodium or saturated fat (Chile); healthy food initiatives (trans fats, calorie labelling, cap on beverage size; New York); the alcohol sales and transport ban during COVID-19 (South Africa); the Vision Zero road safety initiative (Sweden) and establishment of the Thai Health Promotion Foundation. For each initiative a qualitative, semistructured one-on-one interview with a key leader was conducted, supplemented by a rapid literature scan with input from an information specialist. Thematic analysis of the five interviews and 169 relevant studies across the five examples identified facilitators of success including political leadership, public education, multifaceted approaches, stable funding and planning for opposition. Barriers included industry opposition, the complex nature of public health challenges and poor interagency and multisector co-ordination. Further examples building on this global portfolio will deepen understanding of success factors or failures over time in this critical area.

Digital public health leadership in the global fight for health security.

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need to prioritise mature digital health and data governance at both national and supranational levels to guarantee future health security. The Riyadh Declaration on Digital Health was a call to action to create the infrastructure needed to share effective digital health evidence-based practices and high-quality, real-time data locally and globally to provide actionable information to more health systems and countries. The declaration proposed nine key recommendations for data and digital health that need to be adopted by the global health community to address future pandemics and health threats. Here, we expand on each recommendation and provide an evidence-based roadmap for their implementation. This policy document serves as a resource and toolkit that all stakeholders in digital health and disaster preparedness can follow to develop digital infrastructure and protocols in readiness for future health threats through robust digital public health leadership.

Transforming global health education during the COVID-19 era: perspectives from a transnational collective of global health students and recent graduates.

Inspired by the 2021 BMJ Global Health Editorial by Atkins et al on global health (GH) teaching during the COVID-19 pandemic, a group of GH students and recent graduates from around the world convened to discuss our experiences in GH education during multiple global crises. Through weekly meetings over the course of several months, we reflected on the impact the COVID-19 pandemic and broader systemic inequities and injustices in GH education and practice have had on us over the past 2 years. Despite our geographical and disciplinary diversity, our collective experience suggests that while the pandemic provided an opportunity for changing GH education, that opportunity was not seized by most of our institutions. In light of the mounting health crises that loom over our generation, emerging GH professionals have a unique role in critiquing, deconstructing and reconstructing GH education to better address the needs of our time. By using our experiences learning GH during the pandemic as an entry point, and by using this collective as an incubator for dialogue and re-imagination, we offer our insights outlining successes and barriers we have faced with GH and its education and training. Furthermore, we identify autonomous collectives as a potential viable alternative to encourage pluriversality of knowledge and action systems and to move beyond Western universalism that frames most of traditional academia.

Impact of night travel ban on road traffic crashes and fatalities in Zambia: an interrupted time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: The burden of road traffic crashes (RTCs) and road traffic fatalities (RTFs) has been increasing in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Most RTCs and RTFs happen at night. Although few countries, including Zambia, have implemented night travel bans, there is no evidence on the extent to which such policies may reduce crashes and fatalities. METHODS: We exploit the quasi-experimental set up afforded by the banning of night travel of public service vehicles in Zambia in 2016 and interrupted time series analysis to assess whether the ban had an impact on both levels and trends in RTCs and RTFs. We use annual administrative data for the period 2006-2020, with 10 pre-intervention and 4 post-intervention data points. In an alternative specification, we restrict the analysis to the period 2012-2020 so that the number of data points are the same pre-interventions and post-interventions. We also carry out robustness checks to rule out other possible explanation of the results including COVID-19. RESULTS: The night travel ban was associated with a reduction in the level of RTCs by 4131.3 (annual average RTCs before the policy=17 668) and a reduction in the annual trend in RTCs by 2485.5. These effects were significant at below 1%, and they amount to an overall reduction in RTCs by 24%. The policy was also associated with a 57.5% reduction in RTFs. In absolute terms, the trend in RTFs reduced by 477.5 (Annual average RTFs before the policy=1124.7), which is significant at below 1% level. Our results were broadly unchanged in alternative specifications. CONCLUSION: We conclude that a night travel ban may be an effective way of reducing the burden of RTCs and RTFs in Zambia and other LMICs. However, complementary policies are needed to achieve more gains.

Standardised patient study to assess tuberculosis case detection within the private pharmacy sector in Vietnam.

BACKGROUND: Of the estimated 10 million people affected by (TB) each year, one-third are never diagnosed. Delayed case detection within the private healthcare sector has been identified as a particular problem in some settings, leading to considerable morbidity, mortality and community transmission. Using unannounced standardised patient (SP) visits to the pharmacies, we aimed to evaluate the performance of private pharmacies in the detection and treatment of TB. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was undertaken at randomly selected private pharmacies within 40 districts of Vietnam. Trained actors implemented two standardised clinical scenarios of presumptive TB and presumptive multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB). Outcomes were the proportion of SPs referred for medical assessment and the proportion inappropriately receiving broad-spectrum antibiotics. Logistic regression evaluated predictors of SPs' referral. RESULTS: In total, 638 SP encounters were conducted, of which only 155 (24.3%) were referred for medical assessment; 511 (80·1%) were inappropriately offered antibiotics. A higher proportion of SPs were referred without having been given antibiotics if they had presumptive MDR-TB (68/320, 21.3%) versus presumptive TB (17/318, 5.3%; adjusted OR=4.8, 95% CI 2.9 to 7.8). Pharmacies offered antibiotics without a prescription to 89.9% of SPs with presumptive TB and 70.3% with presumptive MDR-TB, with no clear follow-up plan. CONCLUSIONS: Few SPs with presumptive TB were appropriately referred for medical assessment by private pharmacies. Interventions to improve appropriate TB referral within the private pharmacy sector are urgently required to reduce the number of undiagnosed TB cases in Vietnam and similar high-prevalence settings.

Spatial clustering and contextual factors associated with hospitalisation and deaths due to COVID-19 in Sweden: a geospatial nationwide ecological study.

INTRODUCTION: In Sweden, thousands of hospitalisations and deaths due to COVID-19 were reported since the pandemic started. Considering the uneven spatial distribution of those severe outcomes at the municipality level, the objective of this study was, first, to identify high-risk areas for COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths, and second, to determine the associated contextual factors with the uneven spatial distribution of both study outcomes in Sweden. METHODS: The existences of spatial autocorrelation of the standardised incidence (hospitalisations) ratio and standardised mortality ratio were investigated using Global Moran's I test. Furthermore, we applied the retrospective Poisson spatial scan statistics to identify high-risk spatial clusters. The association between the contextual demographic and socioeconomic factors and the number of hospitalisations and deaths was estimated using a quasi-Poisson generalised additive regression model. RESULTS: Ten high-risk spatial clusters of hospitalisations and six high-risk clusters of mortality were identified in Sweden from February 2020 to October 2020. The hospitalisations and deaths were associated with three contextual variables in a multivariate model: population density (inhabitants/km2) and the proportion of immigrants (%) showed a positive association with both outcomes, while the proportion of the population aged 65+ years (%) showed a negative association. CONCLUSIONS: Our study identified high-risk spatial clusters for hospitalisations and deaths due to COVID-19 and the association of population density, the proportion of immigrants and the proportion of people aged 65+ years with those severe outcomes. Results indicate where public health measures must be reinforced to improve sustained and future disease control and optimise the distribution of resources.

Homecare for sick family members while waiting for medical help during the 2014-2015 Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone: a mixed methods study.

INTRODUCTION: Caring for an Ebola patient is a known risk factor for disease transmission. In Sierra Leone during the outbreak in 2014/2015, isolation of patients in specialised facilities was not always immediately available and caring for a relative at home was sometimes the only alternative. This study sought to assess population-level protective caregiving intentions, to understand how families cared for their sick and to explore perceived barriers and facilitators influencing caregiving behaviours. METHODS: Data from a nationwide household survey conducted in December 2014 were used to assess intended protective behaviours if caring for a family member with suspected Ebola. Their association with socio-demographic variables, Ebola-specific knowledge and risk perception was analysed using multilevel logistic regression. To put the results into context, semi-structured interviews with caregivers were conducted in Freetown. RESULTS: Ebola-specific knowledge was positively associated with the intention to avoid touching a sick person and their bodily fluids (adjusted OR (AOR) 1.29; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.54) and the intention to take multiple protective measures (AOR 1.38; 95% CI 1.16 to 1.63). Compared with residing in the mostly urban Western Area, respondents from the initial epicentre of the outbreak (Eastern Province) had increased odds to avoid touching a sick person or their body fluids (AOR 4.74; 95% CI 2.55 to 8.81) and to take more than one protective measure (AOR 2.94; 95% CI 1.37 to 6.34). However, interviews revealed that caregivers, who were mostly aware of the risk of transmission and general protective measures, felt constrained by different contextual factors. Withholding care was not seen as an option and there was a perceived lack of practical advice. CONCLUSIONS: Ebola outbreak responses need to take the sociocultural reality of caregiving and the availability of resources into account, offering adapted and acceptable practical advice. The necessity to care for a loved one when no alternatives exist should not be underestimated.

The Structural and Intercultural Competence for Epidemiological Studies (SICES) guidelines: a 22-item checklist.

Structural and intercultural competence approaches have been widely applied to fields such as medical training, healthcare practice, healthcare policies and health promotion. Nevertheless, their systematic implementation in epidemiological research is absent. Based on a scoping review and a qualitative analysis, in this article we propose a checklist to assess cultural and structural competence in epidemiological research: the Structural and Intercultural Competence for Epidemiological Studies guidelines. These guidelines are organised as a checklist of 22 items and consider four dimensions of competence (awareness and reflexivity, cultural and structural validation, cultural and structural sensitivity, and cultural and structural representativeness), which are applied to the different stages of epidemiological research: (1) research team building and research questions; (2) study design, participant recruitment, data collection and data analysis; and (3) dissemination. These are the first guidelines addressing structural and cultural competence in epidemiological inquiry.

A bibliometric analysis of COVID-19 research in Africa.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an unprecedented global research effort to build a body of knowledge that can inform mitigation strategies. We carried out a bibliometric analysis to describe the COVID-19 research output in Africa in terms of setting, study design, research themes and author affiliation. METHODS: We searched for articles published between 1 December 2019 and 3 January 2021 from various databases including PubMed, African Journals Online, medRxiv, Collabovid, the WHO global research database and Google. All article types and study design were included. RESULTS: A total of 1296 articles were retrieved. 46.6% were primary research articles, 48.6% were editorial-type articles while 4.6% were secondary research articles. 20.3% articles used the entire continent of Africa as their study setting while South Africa (15.4%) was the most common country-focused setting. The most common research topics include 'country preparedness and response' (24.9%) and 'the direct and indirect health impacts of the pandemic' (21.6%). However, only 1.0% of articles focus on therapeutics and vaccines. 90.3% of the articles had at least one African researcher as author, 78.5% had an African researcher as first author, while 63.5% had an African researcher as last author. The University of Cape Town leads with the greatest number of first and last authors. 13% of the articles were published in medRxiv and of the studies that declared funding, the Wellcome Trust was the top funding body. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights Africa's COVID-19 research and the continent's existing capacity to carry out research that addresses local problems. However, more studies focused on vaccines and therapeutics are needed to inform local development. In addition, the uneven distribution of research productivity among African countries emphasises the need for increased investment where needed.

A systematic examination of international funding flows for Ebola virus and Zika virus outbreaks 2014-2019: donors, recipients and funding purposes.

INTRODUCTION: There has been no systematic comparison of how the policy response to past infectious disease outbreaks and epidemics was funded. This study aims to collate and analyse funding for the Ebola epidemic and Zika outbreak between 2014 and 2019 in order to understand the shortcomings in funding reporting and suggest improvements. METHODS: Data were collected via a literature review and analysis of financial reporting databases, including both amounts donated and received. Funding information from three financial databases was analysed: Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation's Development Assistance for Health database, the Georgetown Infectious Disease Atlas and the United Nations Financial Tracking Service. A systematic literature search strategy was devised and applied to seven databases: MEDLINE, EMBASE, HMIC, Global Health, Scopus, Web of Science and EconLit. Funding information was extracted from articles meeting the eligibility criteria and measures were taken to avoid double counting. Funding was collated, then amounts and purposes were compared within, and between, data sources. RESULTS: Large differences between funding reported by different data sources, and variations in format and methodology, made it difficult to arrive at precise estimates of funding amounts and purpose. Total disbursements reported by the databases ranged from $2.5 to $3.2 billion for Ebola and $150-$180 million for Zika. Total funding reported in the literature is greater than reported in databases, suggesting that databases may either miss funding, or that literature sources overreport. Databases and literature disagreed on the main purpose of funding for socioeconomic recovery versus outbreak response. One of the few consistent findings across data sources and diseases is that the USA was the largest donor. CONCLUSION: Implementation of several recommendations would enable more effective mapping and deployment of outbreak funding for response activities relating to COVID-19 and future epidemics.

Modelling interventions to control COVID-19 outbreaks in a refugee camp.

BACKGROUND: In the absence of effective treatments or vaccines, non-pharmaceutical interventions are the mainstay of control in the COVID-19 pandemic. Refugee populations in displacement camps live under adverse conditions that are likely to favour the spread of disease. To date, only a few cases of COVID-19 have appeared in refugee camps, and whether feasible non-pharmaceutical interventions can prevent the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in such settings remains untested. METHODS: We constructed the first spatially explicit agent-based model of a COVID-19 outbreak in a refugee camp, and applied it to evaluate feasible non-pharmaceutical interventions. We parameterised the model using published data on the transmission rates and progression dynamics of COVID-19, and demographic and spatial data from Europe's largest refugee camp, the Moria displacement camp on Lesbos, Greece. We simulated COVID-19 epidemics with and without four feasible interventions. RESULTS: Spatial subdivision of the camp ('sectoring') was able to 'flatten the curve', reducing peak infection by up to 70% and delaying peak infection by up to several months. The use of face masks coupled with the efficient isolation of infected individuals reduced the overall incidence of infection, and sometimes averted epidemics altogether. These interventions must be implemented quickly in order to be maximally effective. Lockdowns had only small effects on COVID-19 dynamics. CONCLUSIONS: Agent-based models are powerful tools for forecasting the spread of disease in spatially structured and heterogeneous populations. Our findings suggest that feasible interventions can slow the spread of COVID-19 in a refugee camp setting, and provide an evidence base for camp managers planning intervention strategies. Our model can be modified to study other closed populations at risk from COVID-19 or future epidemics.

Reduction in healthcare services during the COVID-19 pandemic in China.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic caused a healthcare crisis in China and continues to wreak havoc across the world. This paper evaluated COVID-19's impact on national and regional healthcare service utilisation and expenditure in China. METHODS: Using a big data approach, we collected data from 300 million bank card transactions to measure individual healthcare expenditure and utilisation in mainland China. Since the outbreak coincided with the 2020 Chinese Spring Festival holiday, a difference-in-difference (DID) method was employed to compare changes in healthcare utilisation before, during and after the Spring Festival in 2020 and 2019. We also tracked healthcare utilisation before, during and after the outbreak. RESULTS: Healthcare utilisation declined overall, especially during the post-festival period in 2020. Total healthcare expenditure and utilisation declined by 37.8% and 40.8%, respectively, while per capita expenditure increased by 3.3%. In a subgroup analysis, we found that the outbreak had a greater impact on healthcare utilisation in cities at higher risk of COVID-19, with stricter lockdown measures and those located in the western region. The DID results suggest that, compared with low-risk cities, the pandemic induced a 14.8%, 26.4% and 27.5% reduction in total healthcare expenditure in medium-risk and high-risk cities, and in cities located in Hubei province during the post-festival period in 2020 relative to 2019, an 8.6%, 15.9% and 24.4% reduction in utilisation services; and a 7.3% and 18.4% reduction in per capita expenditure in medium-risk and high-risk cities, respectively. By the last week of April 2020, as the outbreak came under control, healthcare utilisation gradually recovered, but only to 79.9%-89.3% of its pre-outbreak levels. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic had a significantly negative effect on healthcare utilisation in China, evident by a dramatic decline in healthcare expenditure. While the utilisation level has gradually increased post-outbreak, it has yet to return to normal levels.

The remaining unknowns: a mixed methods study of the current and global health research priorities for COVID-19.

INTRODUCTION: In March 2020, the WHO released a Global Research Roadmap in an effort to coordinate and accelerate the global research response to combat COVID-19 based on deliberations of 400 experts across the world. Three months on, the disease and our understanding have both evolved significantly. As we now tackle a pandemic in very different contexts and with increased knowledge, we sought to build on the work of the WHO to gain a more current and global perspective on these initial priorities. METHODS: We undertook a mixed methods study seeking the views of the global research community to (1) assess which of the early WHO roadmap priorities are still most pressing; (2) understand whether they are still valid in different settings, regions or countries; and (3) identify any new emerging priorities. RESULTS: Thematic analysis of the significant body of combined data shows the WHO roadmap is globally relevant; however, new important priorities have emerged, in particular, pertinent to low and lower middle-income countries (less resourced countries), where health systems are under significant competing pressures. We also found a shift from prioritising vaccine and therapeutic development towards a focus on assessing the effectiveness, risks, benefits and trust in the variety of public health interventions and measures. Our findings also provide insight into temporal nature of these research priorities, highlighting the urgency of research that can only be undertaken within the period of virus transmission, as well as other important research questions but which can be answered outside the transmission period. Both types of studies are key to help combat this pandemic but also importantly to ensure we are better prepared for the future. CONCLUSION: We hope these findings will help guide decision-making across the broad research system including the multilateral partners, research funders, public health practitioners, clinicians and civil society.